Sean Horgan

Reflections on AI in 2024 (drafting)

Sean Horgan

Drafting

Things to look for in 2025

Pricing for AI solutions

Costs are all over the place. Model training costs are going down in some areas as small models gain traction. But overall spend is probably going up.

Tech companies without a cloud offering, e.g. Apple, Facebook, will try to commoditize the cloud offerings wherever they can

Google is in a unique position with Deepmind and GCP. Not clear yet how that position will manifest into a durable advantage.

VCs have largely subsidized the current generation of AI solutions and that probably won't last forever

Convergence

This phase can be widely characterized as divergent. Many people can create their own solutions because AI is lowering the barriers.

What are the implications?

Examples of this in previous eras and domains?

Horses used for transportation replaced by ICE powered vehicles. Uneven emergene of mass transit.

Healthcare

References

⁠

https://semianalysis.com/2023/05/04/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither/⁠

⁠

https://simonwillison.net/2024/Dec/4/amazon-nova/⁠

⁠

Unlocking the power of time-series data with multimodal models⁠

⁠

state-of-data-ai-report.pdf⁠

⁠

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0010482524012435⁠

⁠

Tomasz Tunguz on LinkedIn: 77% of enterprise AI usage are using models that are small models, less… | 16 comments⁠

⁠

Lowering barriers

Ease of use

From

https://simonwillison.net/2024/Dec/9/llama-33-70b/⁠

Using

https://ollama.com/⁠

, download their package and simply run

ollama run llama3.2

I have an M4 Macbook with just 16GB of RAM so I needed to focus on smaller models.

Costs & Pricing

⁠

Practical Applications

AI in Bio

⁠

Industry Marketing

Benedict Evan’s “AI eats the world”

From

Presentations — Benedict Evans⁠

⁠

Some specific slides

⁠

Lowering barriers

Ease of use

Costs & Pricing

Practical Applications

AI in Bio

Industry Marketing

Benedict Evan’s “AI eats the world”

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